80th Annual Academy Awards Predictions
And here are my predictions for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.
Strangely enough, the betting pool has been reduced to 4 people this year!
25% chance of winning!
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Prediction: No Country for Old Men
I want to say Atonement I really do. But the exclusion of director Joe Wright and the film losing steam in the race leading up to today, I think it will be an all american tale.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman - Juno
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Prediction: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
This is more or less a no-brainer. It's not time for PT Anderson to win it just yet but Julian Schnabel is the dark horse who might just snatch it from the Coens. Odd that his film wasn't nominated for Best Picture or Best Foreign Language Film!
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Hands down Daniel Day-Lewis. Another year when an actor completely loses himself in a role. But the swinging singing Johnny could have a few blades up his sleeve. But maybe not.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno
Prediction: Julie Christie - Away From Her
This is a 2 way fight. The French versue the Brit. Uglify versus sentimentality. I think sentimental wins it this time.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Prediction: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Bardem's portrayal of the character was so chilling, I felt unsettled. It takes class to do just that.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Prediction: Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Of all the acting categories, this one's the widest one. Cate as Bob Dylan can walk away with the Oscar repeating Hilary Swank's double but I'm going ahead with Amy Ryan's white trash in Gone Baby Gone.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Christopher Hampton - Atonement
Sarah Polley - Away From Her
Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Prediction: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Once again, I want to say Atonement but I think the Coens have really outdone themselves this year compared to the Fargo success 12 years ago. Possibly one of the hardest categories.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody - Juno
Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Brad Bird - Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages
Prediction: Diablo Cody - Juno
It will be irresponsible to say NO to Juno.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
Beaufort (Israel)
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Katyn (Poland)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
12 (Russia)
Prediction: Mongol (Kazakhstan)
I must be mad to go against everyone else and put my faith in a film about Genghis Khan. But then again, just look at the nominees. One of the weirdest and anti-climatic set of nominees for this category in recent years.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
Prediction: Persepolis
This category is possibly the one that makes or breaks my predictions. Enough of the Pixar-y stuff already. Time for some serious shite. And Persepolis is actually that darned good.
ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
Atonement
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
The Golden Compass
Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
There Will Be Blood
Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Prediction: Sweeney Todd
Tim Burton made the right choice not to go green screen for Sweeney and he might be right.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey - Atonement
Janusz Kaminski - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Roger Deakins - No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit - There Will Be Blood
Prediction: Roger Deakins - No Country for Old Men
Roger Deakins will walk away with this one but for which? It's probably safe to trust the Coens.
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Albert Wolsky - Across the Universe
Jacqueline Durran - Atonement
Alexandra Byrne - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Marit Allen - La Vie en Rose
Colleen Atwood - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Prediction: Jacqueline Durran - Atonement
Atonement. For its elegance. As much as I love Universe, it's too simple. Elizabeth is bleah. Same for Rose. Sweeney has Atwood who has too many Oscars.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
Prediction: Taxi to the Dark Side
I don't think the Academy will reward Michael Moore again just yet. 3-US Army related docs, I'd go with the more serious and possibly compelling of the lot.
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Christopher Rouse - The Bourne Ultimatum
Juliette Welfling - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jay Cassidy - Into the Wild
Roderick Jaynes - No Country for Old Men
Dylan Tichenor - There Will Be Blood
Prediction: Juliette Welfling - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Diving Bell is a deserving film and this is the one category where the probability of winning is most apt.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald - La Vie en Rose
Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji - Norbit
Ve Neill and Martin Samuel - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Prediction: Ve Neill and Martin Samuel - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Pirates. For the hell of it.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Dario Marianelli - Atonement
Alberto Iglesias - The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard - Michael Clayton
Michael Giacchino - Ratatouille
Marco Beltrami - 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: Dario Marianelli - Atonement
Dario Marianelli hands down. Giacchino's a Dark Horse but he did better with the Incredibles.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
"Falling Slowly" - Once
Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova
"Happy Working Song" - Enchanted
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"Raise It Up" - August Rush
Nominees to be determined "So Close" - Enchanted
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"That's How You Know" - Enchanted
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
Prediction: "Falling Slowly" - Once
As the Dreamgirls learnt last year, strength in numbers doesn't apply to this category. Listen to Falling Slowly and you'll know just why it should win.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis - The Bourne Ultimatum
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland - No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane - Ratatouille
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe - 3:10 to Yuma
Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin - Transformers
Prediction: Transformers
Transformers will be the Matrix of this year.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg - The Bourne Ultimatum
Skip Lievsay - No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers - Ratatouille
Matthew Wood - There Will Be Blood
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins - Transformers
Prediction: Transformers
As above.
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood - The Golden Compass
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End*
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier - Transformers
Prediction: Transformers
As above.
The remaining categories are pretty random. Hoping for good luck!
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Freeheld
La Corona (The Crown)
Salim Baba
Sari's Mother
Prediction: Sari's Mother
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)
My Love (Moya Lyubov)
Peter & the Wolf
Prediction: I am the Walrus
Because it's about John Lennon, dammit!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Om natten (At Night)
Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman
Prediction: Om natten (At Night)
posted by Lecter at Sunday, February 24, 2008
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